“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
— Yogi Berra

‍

Bill Gates wrote in 1996 that “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” In that spirit—and just for giggles—we’re dusting off our crystal ball to make five predictions about legacy modernization in the year 2035.

‍

1.

“Legacy modernization” as a service offering and “big bang transformations” will become obsolete. Code-centric approaches will be viewed as hopelessly backwards and ineffective. Most successful companies will be in a state of continuous modernization, in which new and old are perpetually orchestrated together, like the Ship of Theseus. AI agents will propose and implement code for new capabilities that don’t break what’s already running.

‍

2.

Technical debt, what technical debt? Developers currently spend 25-50% of their time, depending on the source, working on maintenance tasks. This will shrink to less than 5% as systems become forward-compatible and self-healing. (Some technical debt is good and necessary, just like some forms of financial debt—e.g. mortgages—are useful. The trick is to keep the servicing costs low.)

‍

3.

Incumbents who successfully achieve a state of continuous innovation will create formidable barriers to entry, underpinned by in-house technology teams. They’ll beat digital upstarts at their own game, and will finally unlock the value of decades of data, cementing ongoing industry leadership.

‍

4.

The most sought-after developers will be those who have studied humanities, communicate effectively, and practice systems thinking. They’ll understand the difference between essential complexity—the inherent difficulty of the problem to be solved—and accidental complexity, which arises from the incentive structures that determine how a problem is solved.

‍

5.

The public sector and select U.S. banks will remain the primary customers of mainframe computers, even as "hybrid" configurations take center stage while shorter contracts quietly reshape the landscape behind the scenes.  Private sector companies still running on mainframes will be performing in the bottom quartile of their industries.

‍

—

Now, heading back to the here and now...

‍

News and Views

The cost of a botched legacy upgrade at Sonos is $500 million and counting. “Sonos executives said they had to upgrade decades-old systems that were holding the company back. But the problem wasn’t what they did. It was how they did it—and what they didn’t do.”

‍

“It could’ve been much worse,” is really grasping at straws when it comes to depressingly recurring IT outages at British Airways.

‍

Concerned about AI replacing software developers? According to this small piece of research, as reported in Futurism, you can breathe easy: Devin is like GPS directions confidently leading you straight into a lake.

‍

While this issue looked forward, it’s fun to look backwards, too. I have a soft spot for Nokias: my first-ever mobile phone was the 5190.

‍

From the Orchard

On our latest On a Limb episode, the Rt Hon Liam Byrne joined us to discuss his latest book, The Inequality of Wealth. We explored the risks of inequality, the complexities of modernizing infrastructure and public policy, and what it will take to grow the British economy.

‍

Our Chief People Officer, Joe Militello, shared his playbook on shaping company culture with Great Mondays founder Josh Levine—tune in here for his insights on how to go from merely participating in it, to crafting a culture that’s the fuel for organizational success.

Curious to learn more? Say hello@mechanical-orchard.com.

‍

——————

Issue first published on January 28th, 2025.

‍